Since the Raiders moved to Las Vegas in 2020, they’re 9-10 against the spread at Allegiant Stadium and 3-5 ATS as home favorites.
The betting public is backing the Raiders to buck those trends as 7-point home favorites Sunday over the Texans. But professional sports bettors are banking on Houston to cover.
Circa Sports took some sharp action on the Texans +7 on Friday morning, according to director of risk Chris Bennett. Pro bettor Jeff Whitelaw wagered on Houston +7. The Raiders opened as 7-point favorites, and the line hasn’t moved.
Both teams are coming off byes, with the Raiders (1-4) losing 30-29 last time out to the Chiefs and the Texans (1-3-1) beating the Jaguars 13-6.
Houston is 3-1-1 ATS this season and 6-2-1 ATS in its last nine games overall.
“Houston has played a lot of close games. They play real hard. They’re improving,” Whitelaw said. “The Raiders have been playing a lot of close games. They don’t look like a team that’s going to blow anybody out.
“The Raiders should probably win the game. But I certainly believe seven points is too many.”
The last time the Raiders were home favorites of seven points or more was in Week 15 in 2019 in Oakland, according to ESPN. They were -7 over the Jaguars and lost 20-16. The Raiders are on a 5-14 spread slide as favorites, and quarterback Derek Carr is 16-25-1 ATS as a favorite, including 1-4 ATS as a favorite of seven points or more.
As of Friday, BetMGM and Caesars Sportsbook need the Raiders. At MGM, 61 percent of the tickets and 72 percent of the money are on the Texans. At Caesars, 52.3 percent of the tickets and 58.5 percent of the money are on Houston.
But Station Casinos bettors are all over the Raiders, who account for 77 percent of the tickets.
“No real movement on the number yet. However, it appears to be trending at going to 7½,” Red Rock Resort sportsbook director Chuck Esposito said.
The total is 45½ after opening at 44 at BetMGM, where 73 percent of the tickets and 88 percent of the money are on the over. The Raiders are one of only five NFL teams with more overs than unders this season at 3-1-1. They have a 3-0-1 over mark in their last four games.
The Raiders are -300 on the money line, a simple bet on which team will win the game. In this case, a bettor needs to wager $300 to win $100 on the Raiders to prevail. At MGM, 90 percent of the money on the money line is on the Raiders.
“This is the first game in a stretch of seven straight winnable games for the Raiders,” Esposito said. “Even at 1-4, this year, with all the parity and only a handful of teams with a winning record, you might see multiple teams make the playoffs with a losing record.”
After hosting Houston, the Raiders have road games at New Orleans and Jacksonville, followed by a home game against Indianapolis and away games at Denver and Seattle. The Raiders then come home for a rematch against the Chargers, who beat Las Vegas 24-19 in the season opener.
The Raiders are -340 favorites at William Hill to miss the playoffs and +280 underdogs to make them.
Contact reporter Todd Dewey at email@example.com. Follow @tdewey33 on Twitter.