Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes has one career reception during his six seasons in the NFL. That’s the same number of catches Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts has in his three seasons.
But bettors seem to believe one of the two QBs will catch a pass during Super Bowl LVII on Sunday.
“Neither of those quarterbacks have really been involved very much in trick plays like that,” Circa Sports director of risk Chris Bennett said. “But I’m sure people remember the Eagles doing this in their last Super Bowl, so that might motivate some bets on the yes for that prop.”
The prop bets on whether Mahomes or Hurts will have a reception have received a surprising amount of early action at Circa Sports and the Westgate SuperBook.
The “yes” is 14-1 at Circa. The SuperBook lists the quarterbacks separately, and Mahomes, who is nursing a high ankle sprain, is 14-1 to catch a pass. Hurts is 9-1.
The Eagles famously scored on a trick play known as “Philly Special” late in the second quarter of Super Bowl LII in 2018 when quarterback Nick Foles caught a pass from wide receiver Trey Burton. Philadelphia went on to defeat the New England Patriots 41-33.
“They’re betting on Mahomes to have a reception at 14-1,” SuperBook director John Murray said. “That kind of surprised me because obviously he’s hobbled. It’s hard for me to picture him going out for a pass, but they have liked betting on that one.”
The majority of the handle for prop bets involving the quarterbacks will come this weekend when public bettors arrive en masse, but a couple of early trends have emerged. One is that bettors seem to believe Mahomes and Hurts will do damage on the ground.
Bennett said Circa has written “yes” tickets at 5-1 on either quarterback having a rushing attempt of more than 25 yards. At the SuperBook, Mahomes opened at 10½ total rushing yards, and that prop has been bet up to 19½.
“Somebody out there doesn’t think he’s that injured,” Murray said.
Mahomes opened 2½ touchdown passes at Red Rock Resort, and 100 percent of the tickets are on the over, sportsbook director Chuck Esposito said.
Bettors there also are playing Mahomes to go over 293½ passing yards after it opened at 292½. However, they are betting on Mahomes to go under 140½ yards in the first half.
Esposito also reported that 100 percent of the tickets are on Hurts to go over 1½ touchdown passes.
The SuperBook took a $1,000 bet to win $60,000 on Hurts to throw five touchdowns.
“With the total now creeping up to 51, those people think there’s going to be some touchdown passes by these two guys,” Esposito said.
At the South Point, bettors are showing faith in Mahomes, sportsbook director Chris Andrews said.
Mahomes’ passing yards prop was bet up to 294½ after opening at 289½. In addition, bettors are wagering that the Chiefs quarterback will throw either two or four touchdowns.
Mahomes to throw two TDs is down to +200 after opening +240, while four TD passes is down to 8-1 from its opening price of 10-1.
“Which is interesting because three is kind of the number,” Andrews said.